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Mountain Weather Forecast

Issued: 1:54 PM PST Wednesday, February 21, 2024
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Wednesday night through Friday

Showers will continue to rotate inland from the SW this afternoon and this evening.  The quasi-stationary low-pressure system off the WA coast will slowly drift north overnight, and showers will begin to taper off for the southern WA Cascades and Mt Hood with the focus shifting to the Mountain Loop highway and areas further north along the west slopes of the Cascades.  

The upper low will drift further offshore tonight while weak upper level ridging builds over the inland NW.  We should see some lingering showers over the Olympics and northwest Cascades Thursday morning with dry conditions elsewhere. In the afternoon, skies will partially clear with a mix of sun and clouds. Lingering instability for the Olympics and west side of the Cascades will keep the chance of a stray shower in the forecast.  Freezing levels will be a smidge warmer on Thursday, likely topping out in the 4500-5500' range in the afternoon. 

After a mostly clear and dry Thursday night, the upper level ridge over the area will begin to flatten as the door begins to creak open towards a pattern change. Forecast models diverge how aggressively we'll shift to WNW flow.  Friday should be the mildest day this week, especially for the south WA Cascades and Mt Hood. If the pattern transition occurs quickly, areas further north could see increasing mid-level moisture and alpine WNW winds.  

Weather Forecast

Olympics
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers.
Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered light rain and snow showers, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower.
West North
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Periods of moderate ridgeline winds.
Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered light rain and snow showers, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower.
West Central
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Periods of moderate ridgeline winds.
Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered light rain and snow showers, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower.
West South
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers becoming light scattered showers after midnight. Periods of moderate ridgeline winds.
Mostly cloudy in the morning with isolated light rain and snow showers, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower.
Stevens Pass
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers becoming light scattered showers after midnight. Light to moderate W winds at Pass level and ridgeline.
Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered light rain and snow showers, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower. Light west winds at Pass level and ridgeline.
Snoqualmie Pass
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers becoming light scattered showers after midnight. Light to moderate W winds at Pass level, moderate at ridgeline.
Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered light rain and snow showers, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower. Light west winds at Pass level and ridgeline.
East North
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy with light rain and snow showers then showers becoming scattered after midnight. Showers heaviest near the Cascades crest.Light to moderate ridgeline winds.
Mostly cloudy in the rmorning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon.
East Central
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy with light rain and snow showers then showers becoming scattered after midnight. Showers heaviest near the Cascades crest. Moderate ridgeline winds.
Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon.
East South
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy with light rain and snow showers then showers becoming scattered after midnight. Showers heaviest near the Cascades crest.Moderate ridgeline winds.
Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon.
Mt. Hood
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers becoming light scattered showers after midnight. Moderate ridgeline winds.
Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Wednesday Evening Snow Level None' None' None' None' 4000' 4000' None' 4500'
Wednesday Night Snow Level None' None' None' None' 3500' 3500' None' 4000'
Thursday Morning Snow Level None' None' None' None' 3500' 3500' None' 4500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level None' None' None' None' 5000' 5000' None' 5500'
Thursday Evening Snow Level None' None' None' None' 4000' 4000' None' 6000'
Thursday Night Snow Level None' None' None' None' 3500' 3500' None' 6000'
Friday Morning Snow Level None' None' None' None' 4500' 4500' None' 6500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
None'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
None'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
None'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
None'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
None'
Thursday Night Snow Level
None'
Friday Morning Snow Level
None'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
None'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
None'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
None'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
None'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
None'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
None'
Thursday Night Snow Level
None'
Friday Morning Snow Level
None'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
None'
Washington Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
None'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
None'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
None'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
None'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
None'
Thursday Night Snow Level
None'
Friday Morning Snow Level
None'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
None'
Leavenworth Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
None'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
None'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
None'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
None'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
None'
Thursday Night Snow Level
None'
Friday Morning Snow Level
None'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
None'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
4000'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
5000'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
4000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
3500'
Friday Morning Snow Level
4500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
5500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
4000'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
5000'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
4000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
3500'
Friday Morning Snow Level
4500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
5500'
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
None'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
None'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
None'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
None'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
None'
Thursday Night Snow Level
None'
Friday Morning Snow Level
None'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
None'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
4500'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
4000'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
4500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
5500'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
6000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
6000'
Friday Morning Snow Level
6500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
7000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Wednesday Night Thursday Thursday Night Friday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0 0
Mt Baker Ski Area 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 0 0
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10 0 0
Stevens Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0 0
Snoqualmie Pass 0.25 - 0.50 0 0 0
Crystal Mt LT 0.10 0 0 0
Paradise 0.25 - 0.50 0 0 0
White Pass LT 0.25 0 0 0
Washington Pass LT 0.10 0 0 0
Mission Ridge LT 0.10 0 0 0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head LT 0.25 0 0 0
Tieton River - Darland Mt. LT 0.10 0 0 0
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.25 0 0 0
0.25 - 0.50 0 0 0
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Stevens Pass Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Crystal Mt Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Paradise Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
White Pass Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Washington Pass Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Mission Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Tieton River - Darland Mt. Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Timberline Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Wednesday Evening --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None WSW None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None WSW None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None SW None - None
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Evening WSW None - None
Wednesday Night WSW None - None
Thursday Morning SW None - None
Thursday Afternoon SW None - None
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening WSW None - None
Wednesday Night WSW None - None
Thursday Morning SW None - None
Thursday Afternoon SW None - None

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Wednesday Evening --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None --- None - None
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening --- None - None
Wednesday Night --- None - None
Thursday Morning --- None - None
Thursday Afternoon --- None - None

Extended Weather Synopsis for Friday night through Sunday

A big storm is on tap for Sunday/Monday leading the way into a pattern change next week. It's the type of shift that has us thinking of new snow amounts in terms of feet instead of inches. There's uncertainty regarding just how much of a rollercoaster we're in for regarding snow levels, but there's increasing confidence we're in for a wet and active period. 

Before we get to end of the weekend, look for increasing clouds and WNW ridgeline winds, along with an increasing likelihood of precipitation for the WA Cascades on Saturday as weak disturbances slide down in WNW flow aloft. Similar to the timing discrepancies for Friday, some forecast models begin precipitation on Saturday along the west slopes of the Cascades, while others show an increase in clouds but a slower arrival of precipitation.  

Even if we squeak out a mostly dry Saturday, look for precipitation to increase Saturday night. This pattern will feature strong WNW flow with good orographics for the west slopes of the Cascades. While snow levels won't be high, they will likely sit around 3000-4000' for the majority of the weekend, translating into rain for lower trailheads and Passes including Snoqualmie and heavier wet snow at mid-elevations. If Sunday doesn't start stormy it will likely end there as a strong frontal system impacts the area. Behind the front, we'll see much colder air and low snow levels to start next week. 

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Friday Night Snow Level None' - None' None' - None' None' - None'
Saturday Snow Level None' - None' None' - None' None' - None'
Saturday Night Snow Level None' - None' None' - None' None' - None'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Friday Night Snow Level
None' - None'
Saturday Snow Level
None' - None'
Saturday Night Snow Level
None' - None'
Sunday Snow Level
None' - None'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Night Snow Level
None' - None'
Saturday Snow Level
None' - None'
Saturday Night Snow Level
None' - None'
Sunday Snow Level
None' - None'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Night Snow Level
None' - None'
Saturday Snow Level
None' - None'
Saturday Night Snow Level
None' - None'
Sunday Snow Level
None' - None'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Feb. 21, 2024

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